INMACOM Attends SARCOF 30

3 February 2025

The Incomati and Maputo Watercourse Commission (INMACOM) took part in the thirtieth edition of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF – 30). SARCOF is an initiative by the Southern African Development Community’s Climate Services Centre (SADC CSC) and this edition was hosted on 28 – 30 January 2025, in Antananarivo, Madagascar, in conjunction with the Madagascar Meteorology Department (METEO). On the 31^st January 2025, there was a one day workshop themed “DEVELOPING CLIMATE RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEANIC MEMBER STATES”.

The main purpose for SARCOF 30 was to reflect on the regional forecast shared at SARCOF 29 (held between 26^th – 28^th August 2024), which looked into three monthly periods between October 2024 to January 2025. The period is broken into overlapping three monthly periods from October, November, December (OND), December, January, February (DJF) and January, February, March (JFM). The meeting reflected on the forecast with various sectors sharing their experiences and reactions to the situation. The forecast for overlapping three-month periods between February to June 2025 was also shared. These overlapping periods are February, March, April (FMA), March, April, May (MAM) and April, May, June (AMJ).

SADC CSC works with climate experts from meteorology and hydrology departments across SADC to prepare and compile the forecast. The final outlook is produced with inputs from the African Centre for Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) and Global Producing Centres (GPCs) including the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), Météo-2 France, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), UK Met Office, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA). There were contributions from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

SARCOF 30 Statement:

The outlook for FMA places the Incomati and Maputo basins under zone 2. Normal to above normal rainfall is expected in that zone. The historical mean rainfall between 1981 and 2010 for this zone shows that 200 – 300mm of rainfall is usually received in the FMA period but the forecast predicts 300 – 400mm of rainfall.

The outlook for MAM places the Incomati basin in zones 2 and 5, whilst the Maputo basin is in zone 2. Zone 2 is expected to get normal to above normal rainfall whilst zone will get below normal rainfall. The historical mean rainfall for AMJ between 1981 to 2010 is on average 100 – 200mm but the forecast predicts 200 – 400mm of rainfall.

The forecast for AMJ placed the two basins in zone 3, which is expected to get normal to above normal rainfall. The historical mean rainfall for AMJ between 1981 to 2010 is on average 0.5 – 100mm but the forecast predicts 200 – 400mm of rainfall.

Key Learning Points from SARCOF 30:

The engagements at SARCOF showed the need to invest in weather data collection which will help localise the forecasts a lot more. This could include the development of community-based citizen science programs where the public can also contribute to the effort to improve coverage. This engagement has the added benefit of helping the public understand the role of platforms like SARCOF.

INMACOM should consider engaging in a technical investigation to understand the impact of unpredictable weather in urban areas where the infrastructure is unable to cope with frequent floods. The study can look into impacts in rural areas a well, which would then guide on the ideal adaptation and resilience measures.

In rolling out the Disaster Management System and Protocol, there is a need to enhance the information dissemination platforms for items like the SARCOF statement. INMACOM can find a way to unpack the SARCOF statement for her stakeholders such that it becomes useful information according to those stakeholders’ needs.